Seminar Slides

D. Mayo Slides

Day 1 SLIDES:  July 28 DAY ONE Summer Seminar (Welcome to the 2019 Summer Seminar in PhilStat: What is philosophy of statistics, The statistics wars, SIST Excursion 1, Tours I & II)
Day 1 video (July 28, 2019)

Day 2 SLIDES: July 29 DAY TWO SUMMER SEMINAR (Quick sum-up Excursion 1, Excursion 2: Taboos of Induction and Falsification Tour I: Induction and Confirmation: Chart Carnap-Popper; A little bit of logic; Problem of Induction; Confirmation, B-boost)
Day 2 video (July 29, 2019)

Day 3 SLIDES: July 30 DAY THREE Summer Seminar (Day Three: Falsification, Pseudoscience, Induction: Popper (Excursion 2 Tour II), Kuru, Novelty & Severity)
Day 3 video (July 30, 2019)

July 31 DAY FOUR Bernoulli slides (Bernoulli trials: Plain Jane Version)
PART 2: July 31 DAY FOUR Part 2 (Notes on the replication revolution in psychology: Stapel, Reproducibility project, biasing selection effects, SEV, multiple testing, Schnall example, Neyman quarrel w/ Carnap)
Day4 video (2:00 pm July 31, 2019)

Day 5 SLIDES: August 1 DAY FIVE Summer Seminar (Excursion 3 Statistical Tests and Scientific Inference: Tour I Ingenious and Severe Tests: General Theory of Relativity (GTR), N-P Tests, CIs, Water Plant example, p-values, reformulating tests)

Day 6 SLIDES: August 2 DAY SIX Summer Seminar (Excursion 3 Tour III: Capability and Severity: Deeper Concepts: Historical aside, The duality, Severity and Capabilities of Methods, Severity vs. Rubbing–off, Higgs discovery: “5 sigma observed effect”, 5 sigma normal chart, P-value police, Higgs thumbs-up/thumbs down, Look Elsewhere Effect (LEE), ASA 6 principles)

Part 1:
August 3 DAY 7 Summer Seminar (new) (Review testing reasoning, Variations on Test T+) 
August 3 DAY 7(A) Summer Seminar (Large n, CIs and Tests Excursion 3 Tour III, Excursion 4 Tour II: How Could a Group of Psychologists be so Wrong?, Significant Results with Overly Sensitive Tests: Large n Problem, Reforming the Reformers on Confidence Intervals, link to Marcos SEV app)
PART 3: August 3 DAY 7(B) Summer Seminar (Variations on Test T+, Rejection rules, Practice with p-values, Frequentist Evidential Principle: FEV, Reformulating Tests: P-values Don’t Give an Effect Size, Example Power (or prob of Type II errors), SEV)

Day 8: OFF

PART 1: August 5 DAY NINE (9A) Summer Seminar (Excursion 3 Tour II: Howlers and Chestnuts of Statistical Tests)
PART 2: August 5 DAY NINE (9B) Summer Seminar (Excursion 4, Tour III, 4.6: Biasing selection effects, Court case of Dr. Paul Hack, 21 word solution, Replication paradox, BEM, ASA principles)

Day 10 SLIDES:
August 6 DAY 10 (10A) Summer Seminar (Excursion 4 Tour II: Rejection Fallacies: Whose Exaggerating What?, Berger & Sellke Jeffreys-Lindley “Paradox” or Bayes/Fisher Disagreement, A Dialogue on the Water Plant Accident, Contrasting Bayes Factors, Valen Johnson, The Severity Interpretation of Rejection (SIR))
PART 2: August 6 DAY TEN (10B) Summer Seminar (Excursion 5 Tour I: Pre-data and Post-data, Power Howlers, Trade-offs and Benchmarks, SEV APP pictures, Trade-offs Between α, the Type I Error Probability and Power, Ziliak and McCloskey, Neyman Chides Carnap, Again, SEV post-data measure)

Day 11 SLIDES:
PART 1: August 7 Day 11 (Little piece on non-significance, P-value “moderate”, Π(γ): “sensitivity function”, FEV(ii) in terms of Π(γ))
PART 2:August 7 DAY 11 (B) Summer Seminar (Excursion 4 Tour IV: Objectivity and Model Checking 4.8 All Models are False, Neyman pest control, 4.9 For Model-checking, They Come Back to Significance Tests, 4.11 Philosophy of Misspecification (M-S) Testing in the Error Statistical Account, Probabilistic Reduction: Spanos, secret variable)

Day 12 SLIDES:
August 8 DAY 12 (A) Summer Seminar (Power, Shpower, Attained Power, Diagnostic Screening Negative results: d(x0) ≤ cα, Excursion 5 Tour II Shpower and Retrospective Power, 5.6 Positive Predictive Value: Fine for Luggage, Diagnostic Screening, Probabilistic instantiation fallacy, SEV app pictures (z statistics, type 1 error prob.) CRUD factor, The Dangers of the DS Model)
PART 2: August 8 DAY 12 (B) Summer Seminar (Diagnostic Screening, Probabilistic instantiation, base rates and all that, Students from the wrong side of town (ex), Fallacy of probabilistic instantiation, Achinstein, reverse discrimination)

Day 13 SLIDES:
August 9 DAY 13 (A) Summer Seminar (5.7 Statistical Theatre: “Les Miserables Citations”, 5.8 Neyman’s Performance and Fisher’s Fiducial Probability, 1955-6 Triad: Telling what’s true about the Fisher-Neyman conflict: Fisher 1955, Pearson 1955, and Neyman 1956)
PART 2: August 9 Day 13 Summer Seminar (Review of everything so far)

Day 14 SLIDES:
August 10 DAY 14 ASA discussion blog (Discussion for the day: Hardwicke & Ioannidis 2019, Amrhein, Greenland, 2019, Mayo editorial)
PART 2: August 10, Day 14 Farewell Keepsake (Farewell Keepsake in the Form of: 7 Responses for Severe Testers in Today’s 3D* Stat Wars *Philosophical, Social & Political)

A. Spanos Slides

Day 1: lecture notes 1- summer seminar-2019
Day 1: video (July 28, 2019)

Day 2: lecture notes 2- summer seminar-2019

Day 3: lecture notes 3- summer seminar-2019
Day 3: video (9:30 am July 30, 2019)
Day 3: video (11:30 am July 30, 2019)

Day 4: lecture notes 4- summer seminar-2019

Day 5: lecture notes 5- summer seminar-2019

Day 6: lecture notes 6- summer seminar-2019lecture notes 7- summer seminar-2019

Day 7: lecture notes 8- summer seminar-2019; lr-interpretation

Day 8: OFF

Day 9: lecture notes 9-summer seminar-2019

Day 10: lecture notes 10- summer seminar-2019

Day 11: lecture notes 11- summer seminar-2019

DAY 12: Break-out group exercise — Thursday 4:30-6:00pm

The empirical exercise for Thursday includes:

  1. the list of group leaders  and instructions to download the relevant software (teams).
  2. The empirical exercise (exercise-2019)
  3. The data to be used in word (text) format (YULE-1926-data); they can be cut and pasted in any software program.

Day 12: Discussion lecture notes 11 above

Day 13: Discussion lecture notes 11 above

Day 14: slides-frequentist-interpretation-2019