The Savage Quote I mentioned today regarding the relevance of the stopping rule. The Stopping Rule Principle (SRP) holds that it’s irrelevant to the import of the data.The quote is on SIST p. 48.

“I learned the stopping rule principle from Professor Barnard, in conversation in the summer of 1952. Frankly, I then thought it a scandal that anyone in the profession could advance an idea so patently wrong, even as today I can scarcely believe that some people resist an idea so patently right”. (Savage 1962, p. 76)

Quote from Day #1 of the Summer Seminar

Andrew Gelman
Wednesday, August 7: 4-5:30
Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Columbia University
Every philosophy has holes, and it is the responsibility of proponents of a philosophy to point out these problems.  Here are a few holes in Bayesian data analysis:  (1) flat priors immediately lead to terrible inferences about things we care about, (2) subjective priors are incoherent, (3) Bayes factors don’t work, (4) for the usual Cantorian reasons we need to check our models, but this destroys the coherence of Bayesian inference.  Some of the problems of Bayesian statistics arise from people trying to do things they shouldn’t be trying to do, but other holes are not so easily patched.

Andrew Gelman: special Invited speaker Wed. Aug 7 (Summer Seminar in Phil Stat)